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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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