Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
