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Increasing concerns have emerged regarding the possibility of military engagement among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a intense verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his government's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the desire to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

Amid continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to short statements on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea labeling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a approach of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople alerted on 16 September that efforts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has displayed training completions of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the military, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler terminated this system and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended armed struggle followed, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries remained at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a move that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened again.