The rhetoric and visuals from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India spoke of a robust bilateral partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the leaders took a ride together, mirroring a familiar political gesture. In his address, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "beacon", built on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th visit to India during his 25-year tenure and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Divide Between Pageantry and Substance
Nevertheless, a noticeable gap persists between the ceremony and the actual content of this alliance. While Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are actually buying a reduced amount of Russian oil because of international pressure. The two countries concluded a series of memorandums of understanding in areas like mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. However, anticipated revelations on major defence deals did not materialize. India has not concluded any major defence agreements with Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a trend driven by delays in deliveries of equipment and components as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.
A Partnership Losing Strategic Influence
These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer carries the same strategic heft it previously did. During the Cold War, India maintained preferential trade terms and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have attempted to preserve a semblance of this close bond through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the same significance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened ties with the West.
Broadening and Inherent Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial links with Moscow. Yet, as Western coercion increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to broaden the relationship into new sectors. On Putin's trip, they announced an joint economic program extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "more diversified, equitable and long-lasting". This includes enhancing entry for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two spans multiple strategically important fields – from space and nuclear energy to defence and agriculture.
Sentimental Affinity and Seen Reliability
At an ideological plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia persists, particularly among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has resulted in a certain level of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing frictions between India and the US, in which American leaders have issued critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a increasingly dependable ally.
The key difficulty, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive declaration issued during Putin's India trip contained no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically described the relationship as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the war have been limited.
Navigating the Circle: India's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This situation does not belie the underlying contradictions in India's international stance. The country is poised to conclude a trade deal with the European Union, following a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen cultural contacts between India and Russia.
How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the removal of a major thorn in its ties with the West. However, even if a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "just peace" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly continue in Western governments.
