Whenever the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects problems.
That is when large aerial objects are sent across the border, with containers of cheap cigarettes hanging beneath.
Over the last two and a half months, this illicit balloon traffic has caused Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.
On a single instance, the airspace was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.
However, the authorities are certain they are facing something far more hostile than mere smugglers.
They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an manifestation of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.
State of Alert
The Lithuanian government has declared an emergency situation.
While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.
"Naturally it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus uses organised crime to influence neighbouring countries," a senior official stated.
The official suggested the balloons are launched from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.
Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern edge.
"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."
Border Vigilance
Now, each evening, security forces deploy in the border zone.
The balloons are most common under cover of darkness.
Teams establish mobile checkpoints on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.
The balloons travel too high to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.
Consequently, the government has offered a financial incentive to any firm that can figure out how to safely stop them.
Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.
Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also serve as a deterrent.
Strategic Motives
The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with security wire and fortifications.
This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as hostile.
Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".
He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.
In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a deliberate crisis.
"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That means it benefits them."
The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting sanctions.
"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.
The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.
Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.
Consequences for Travel
Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.
"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.
Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.
"There are direct financial costs, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.
"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.
"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."
Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.
"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."
